Chiefs Chronicles: NFL Draft- First Round Prediction

A Last Second Post Using Semi-Scientific Methods to Predict Who the Chiefs Will Pick in the First Round of the NFL Draft

WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Who’s It Gonna Be?

Ok. This is going to be a quick and dirty edition of Chiefs Chronicles. I’m not always great under pressure, so this may or may not make sense.

My methodology for figuring out the Chiefs 1st Round pick will be as follows:

1. For the sake of this exercise, I will assume they are taking either a WR or an OT. I will not be tempted by top players at other positions who have dropped. Unless the player is Brock Bowers.

2. I will try to choose the highest-ranked player available (according to each site), but no promises. Some sites have guys ranked higher than I think they should be.

3. I will do several (at least 5) 1st Round mock drafts (with no trades by the Chiefs) on the NFL Mock Draft Database Simulator & ESPN’s NFL Draft 2024 Simulator.

4. This process will be repeated on those websites, but I will have the Chiefs trade up to get a premium player (WR or OT) that has fallen a bit.

5. Once I have these results, I will see who the Chiefs will likely pick in either situation. That’s the theory at least…

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Let The Experiments Begin!

Here are the results of the No Trade Drafts:

Wide Receivers

• Ladd McConkey (3X)

• Adonai Mitchell (3X)

• Xavier Worthy (1X)

• Xavier Legette (1X)

Offensive Tackles

• Tyler Guyton (3X)

• Amarius Mims (2X)

• Kingsley Suamataia (1X)

Based on these results the most likely pick for the Chiefs if they stay at 32 is either 1A- Ladd McConkey or 1B- Adonai Mitchell, with 2- Tyler Guyton close behind. I wouldn’t hate any of these picks but they aren’t exactly exciting.

Ladd McConkey doing his best Nightcrawler impression

Now for the results of the Trade Up Drafts :

Wide Receivers/Tight End (Brock Bowers)

• Brian Thomas Jr. (2X) - I thought I would trade up to get him more than I did. The problem I ran into was Brock Bowers. A couple of times he was somehow still on the board, and I just couldn’t pass him up.

• Brock Bowers (2X) - Two tight end sets to horrify the rest of the NFL.

Offensive Tackles

• Joe Alt (1X) - He fell to 15!!!

• J.C. Latham (1X)

• Olumuyiwa Fashanu (1X)

• Amarius Mims (1X)

(Note: Time got short, so I did less of these. I also realized that if I was willing to give up enough I could make any trade go through.)

I wouldn’t kick him off the field for eating crackers. That’s a saying right?

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And the pick is…

Looking at all of my mock drafts and considering everything I’ve read/watched/listened to during the pre-draft runup, I think the Chiefs are going to trade up. Someone they like will fall a little after the run on QBs, and they’ll jump up to the late teens-early twenties to grab them.

And who will that player be?

My official guess (and I know I’m not going out on a limb here) for the Chiefs 1st Round pick is:

Brian Thomas Jr.

Prediction is locked in!

Now to see if it actually happens. Your guess is as good as mine. What do you think?

No matter what happens it’s going to be an exciting next few days. I’ll try and post tomorrow about the pick and the draft moving forward. Enjoy and, as always, GO CHIEFS!!!!!