Chiefs Chronicles: NFL Week 14
Losing Stinks, What The Chiefs' Problem Is, Why Don't TV Shows Have Theme Songs Anymore? Plus: CBS Is Driving Me Crazy, GIFs, Links & Other Random Stuff!
I’m not going to lie: it’s much harder to write about the Chiefs when they lose. When it becomes an official “losing streak,” the difficulty increases by a factor of 10. Add in all of the wonderful things that life throws at each of us every day, and it can be darn near impossible to sit down and type something coherent, much less funny (as long as it amuses me, it counts as being funny- anyone else reading and enjoying it is just the gravy on top).
Most of Chiefs Kingdom is probably cautiously optimistic that KC can turn things around over the next four games (facing four backup QBs) and enter the playoffs not only on a roll but possibly as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Sure, a few things will have to fall their way, but the Chiefs are usually able to figure things out. Eventually.
I believe the next GIF (I’m firmly in the “gif” camp when it comes to what to call those fantastic little animated clips- “jif” is peanut butter) sums up how every other Chiefs fan feels…
There are several good reasons they have their doubts, but one in particular stands out. You see, loyal Chiefs fans could always count on three things: Andy Reid’s mustache, Travis Kelce’s sick dance moves, and Patrick Mahomes winning in December. For the sake of everyone’s sanity, let’s just focus on that last one. Since the 2019 NFL Season, Patrick’s December record was a sparkling 16-1. The only blemish was a 27-24 loss to the Joe Burrow-led Bengals (BTW, he looks a lot like a young Jim Breuer if you compare pics of them side by side- the resemblance is uncanny). One loss (even to this guy) isn’t a big deal, though. Not stacked alongside 16 wins.
This December isn’t following that familiar win-most-of-the-time pattern we’re all used to, though. The Chiefs have lost two games they could (and probably should) have won.
Why?
Let’s start our search for a culprit by looking at the defensive side of the ball. Key injuries to the defense haven’t helped matters, but the Chiefs D is still holding opponents to an average of 16.6 points per game, which is 3rd in the league and more than good enough to win. They are tied with a few teams for the 3rd most sacks on the season so far (42), which is great. There are some penalties and mental lapses, but they don’t seem overwhelming. They aren’t generating many turnovers (we’ll discuss that more below), with only 7 INTs and 8 FRs so far (their 15 TOs created puts them at 24th in the NFL), which isn’t helping. They are, however, holding up their end of the bargain for the most part. So, the defense isn’t to blame (despite some passionate discussions on the sidelines).
Special Teams have been doing a pretty good job (Harrison Butker has been amazing). Not perfect, but not horrific. No need to go into ST deeper here. I will say though, that the NFL needs to make sure the kick return stays a part of football. A well-executed kick return is one of the most exciting plays in the game and it’s a shame to see them trying to phase it out.
Now let’s move on to the Chiefs offense, which has been the strength of this team for years. Patrick Mahomes, while still incredible, looks out of sync with nearly all of his pass catchers, and that’s leading to passes (tipped or not) that end up in the other team’s hands. He has an almost two-to-one TD/INT ratio (23 TDs against 11 INTs), and that’s by far the worst number of his career, as is his QB rating of 93.3. Still, when it’s 3rd and 17 with less than 2 minutes left in the game, he’s the guy you want leading the team for the winning score. He’s earned everyone’s trust.
Isiah Pacheco has been a bright spot for the offense (other than that punch he threw) when Coach Reid remembers to use him (and now he’s out with a shoulder issue/surgery, but it sounds like he should be returning soon). Untimely, drive-killing penalties by the O-line pop up every game, especially (it seems) from the very well-paid right tackle. The receivers (who KC’s future Hall of Fame TE says are not entirely to blame) haven’t been as reliable as they should be (to put it mildly), and that’s also a part of what’s hurting the team. Rashee Rice has been ascending and looks like he will end up being a great draft pick.
So what is wrong with the Chiefs?
There are lots of problems (and Kelce is right, there’s a lot of blame to go around) that cause drives to stall and lead to losses, but one of the biggest issues that this year’s team is dealing with (it may even be numero uno) is the turnover problem (no, not the delicious type of turnover).
Ball security issues are cropping up fairly regularly with some big turnovers in the red zone that have led to defeats. As was already mentioned, Patrick is throwing more picks than usual. Fumbles are up. All of the turnovers by the Offense and the lack of turnovers generated by the Defense (as explained above) have led to the Chiefs having a TO Differential of -7, good (or bad, depending on where you’re standing) for 29th in the league. That’s a bad spot to be in.
Why is it so bad, though? Is turnover differential really that important, you ask? Yes. Yes, it is.
An NFL Fact sheet entitled “WINNING THE TURNOVER BATTLE = WINS,” lays out some simple, yet profound statements of fact:
“A fumble recovery or an interception by the defense does not just represent an extra possession for your ballclub; it is one less opportunity your opponent has to score… …There is no statistic to explain the shift in momentum after a turnover. It’s huge. If a team squanders opportunity after opportunity – especially down towards the red zone – it can eat away at the confidence of the offense and demoralize the defense, which is left with the responsibility of trying to stop an invigorated opponent.”
That all makes a lot of sense, right? Between 1994-2003 (granted, it’s an old fact sheet) teams that won the turnover battle went 1,546-427-3 for a win percentage of .784. The most up-to-date winning percentage I could find for Andy Reid’s Chiefs is .727, as of the end of November. With two December losses, it’s now lower.
To provide some relevant historical context, check out the TO differential numbers that Marty Schottenheimer’s Chiefs teams put up (from Chiefs.com):
“One of the most revealing indices of coaches who preach discipline is turnover differential. Schottenheimer's teams in Kansas City had a positive turnover differential, averaging a plus-10.5 per season over his decade in Kansas City, including an astonishingly opportunistic plus-26 in 1990.”
Marty’s Chiefs teams won a lot of games in the ‘90s, and their discipline and attention to detail were big reasons why. They tended not to hurt themselves. Granted, they didn’t have the playoff success to go with that amazing TO differential, but at least you knew they weren’t going to implode until the playoffs (insert painful Chiefs playoff loss from the ‘90s here).
Andy Reid’s more free-flying Chiefs teams, on the other hand, do have playoff success. And historically, they have a decent turnover differential (as far as I can recall- some of these numbers are hard to track down). With Patrick Mahomes leading the offense since 2018, they have been able to overcome turnovers and bad odds to pull out victories most of the time. Patrick Mahomes is usually the ultimate statistical outlier (part 2- great stuff from Seth Keysor).
This year, though, has been an outlier in its own way. The Chiefs and the Mahomes Magic, while still there, have been muted for the reasons listed above.
Most of all, though, the Chiefs seem to be lacking discipline. They need to avoid hurting themselves. What would the 2023 Chiefs record look like if they were able to limit self-inflicted errors and have a positive or even turnover differential? They would probably be undefeated. Like the man said, “The only team that can beat the Chiefs, is the Chiefs.” (Quick note: I’m just going to avoid the offensive offsides controversy. If the Chiefs become disciplined, that kind of stuff won’t be an issue.)
Off-topic: Why don’t TV shows have awesome theme songs anymore? This generation is missing out on having random songs about fictional characters bouncing around inside their skulls for the rest of their lives. That’s my life, kids.
Here are some examples for the youngsters, and a nice stroll down memory lane for the more mature (age-wise) readers:
Barney Miller- The New York cop sitcom that inspired Brooklyn Nine-Nine.
The Fall Guy- At almost two minutes, this is a long intro, but a great one. How much money did this show spend on stunts? This was before CGI, kids. Ryan Gosling has a movie version of this show coming out next year.
The Greatest American Hero- Before the MCU, we had this guy.
Good Times- I forgot who was in this when she was young! Crazy.
There are a LOT more, but this has already taken up a lot of space. Ah, memories…
It was infuriating that the NFL and CBS made many Chiefs fans miss almost all of the first quarter of the Bills at the Chiefs, so they could instead watch the end of a game that was basically over, between two teams most don’t remember (I know I don’t). The NFL and its broadcast partners need to find a way to let us watch what we want to watch when we want to watch it. Especially if we’ve shelled out hundreds of dollars for NFL Sunday Ticket. That’s too much money to miss any part of a live game. Do better NFL/CBS/Fox/YouTube TV.
That’s all I have this week. Let’s hope the Chiefs can beat the Pats (not sure how much longer this guy has). Maybe then you’ll get next week’s post before Saturday night. (Some edits and links will be added over the next couple of days- that’s more for me, but feel free to check for updates, if you like more content.)
I laughed pretty hard at the "turnovers" link. I was not expecting a recipe to make cream cheese turnovers!
These guys need to stop getting hurt. It's like watching gronkowski, he was good but seemed like he always got hurt.
Think they'll beat the patriots next game?
Forgot to say: yes, I think they’ll beat the Patriots. Two losses in a row is rare for them, so three must be extremely unlikely.