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The Chiefs going for a 3-peat will have unexpected hurdles. It’s a shame Rice was not able to hurdle over a diving Mahomes last Sunday on the fumbled interception play by San Diego.
That being said, the defense is elite, and Andy Reid has always been able to tweak the offense with gadget plays to keep opposing defenses one step behind. By week 18, I predict the Chiefs will still win the division and have all key players back at just the right time to make a championship run. In the NFL the sky is the limit with an HOF QB, experienced coaching staff, and a motivated/talented defense.
What's up this morning Gary? I gave my thoughts last week on Rashee (unless somebody fills his spot quickly, this offence is really going to struggle due to Patrick's somewhat limited arm talent), but you've brought up an interesting Kareem Hunt hypothetical that I decided I'd put some thought into, for no reason whatsoever.
The rushing game with Kareem Hunt operated at 0.32 yards above expectation per touch and 0 EPA/Rush. 0 EPA/Rush is a very good result for a rushing play, and 0.32 yards above expectation is really mediocre, so it's a reasonable conclusion that the 2018 Chiefs' rush game was being carried pretty hard by a combination of a solid O-Line and the Mahomes effect. This comes to pass in the data, as when the 2018 Chiefs pivoted to Damien Williams after Hunt's issues, he operated at 0.26 yards above expectation per rush, and 0 EPA/Rush. Shockingly similar.
So from a purely rushing standpoint, the Chiefs lost nothing by losing Kareem Hunt. Literally nothing, not even an inch of a backwards step. The production is almost exactly the same. The receiving out of the RB position is where this argument gets interesting, because in 2018 the Chiefs had three of the best receiving backs in the NFL on a per catch basis (Hunt, Ware, and Williams in that order).
Damien Williams was by far the worst of the three, but he only got 24 targets. On a per-snap basis, this is more than Kareem, which is interesting to me, because he wasn't as good as Kareem as a receiver. His hands were better though, which may be an outsized skill at the RB position. Regardless, even Kareem Hunt only got three targets per game that season, so despite him being a fantastic receiver, his receiving production was not an especially crucial part of that 2018 defence.
In sum, my answer to your poll question is a definitive no. Losing Kareem made no difference at all to the rush attack. I feel comfortable phrasing that as a statement of fact, and I also don't think the shift of a few receptions per game from him to either Spencer Ware or Damien Williams made that much difference either. I think the difference between Kareem Hunt and the Ware/Williams committee was minimal at best and nonexistent at worst. This wouldn't have pushed them over the 2018 hump.
I laughed pretty hard at the blowout prediction. I'm just not sure (unless the defence generates a lot of turnovers, and I mean a LOT of turnovers) of this offence's capability of putting up 42 points against one of the best defences in the NFL. This isn't to say they can't win. It's not even to say they can't win by double digits, but it's going to have to be driven by the defence instead of the offence.
Man, I’m straight up exhausted. Been unwell lately and having sleep issues. Add to all that the fact I just barely wrapped up this week’s column and I’ve come to this conclusion:
I’m too tired to argue today. Sorry. I will give you a little bit though.
1) Patrick Mahomes’ “somewhat limited arm talent”?
😂🤣😂🤣😂 C’mon, bro! His arm talent is top notch and that’s not just me saying that- you could ask 100 NFL coaches, GMs, scouts, and analysts and they’d agree with me. Stop trying to wind me up.
He’s having, by his own admission, issues this season with his mechanics and also he said recently that he needs to stop overthinking everything and just have fun like he did earlier in his career.
2) You can throw numbers at me all you want but I watched Kareem that season and he looked fantastic. Yet again I will say this: Numbers/metrics/stats are all useful tools but they aren’t everything. Watching players play is vital.
Plus, as you said, it was hypothetical. Dreamers gonna dream. (Note: Damian Williams was amazing for that first Super Bowl team.)
3) Like I said: I’ll keep predicting blowouts until they happen.
Like my former boss said: The beatings will continue until morale improves.
In retrospect, with better execution/luck in the red zone, it very well could have been 42-13 last night!
I was thinking exactly the same thing. They’re getting closer!
The Chiefs going for a 3-peat will have unexpected hurdles. It’s a shame Rice was not able to hurdle over a diving Mahomes last Sunday on the fumbled interception play by San Diego.
That being said, the defense is elite, and Andy Reid has always been able to tweak the offense with gadget plays to keep opposing defenses one step behind. By week 18, I predict the Chiefs will still win the division and have all key players back at just the right time to make a championship run. In the NFL the sky is the limit with an HOF QB, experienced coaching staff, and a motivated/talented defense.
That all sounds good. As a fan, I want to believe it will all work out, so that’s what I’ll be doing until further notice.
What's up this morning Gary? I gave my thoughts last week on Rashee (unless somebody fills his spot quickly, this offence is really going to struggle due to Patrick's somewhat limited arm talent), but you've brought up an interesting Kareem Hunt hypothetical that I decided I'd put some thought into, for no reason whatsoever.
The rushing game with Kareem Hunt operated at 0.32 yards above expectation per touch and 0 EPA/Rush. 0 EPA/Rush is a very good result for a rushing play, and 0.32 yards above expectation is really mediocre, so it's a reasonable conclusion that the 2018 Chiefs' rush game was being carried pretty hard by a combination of a solid O-Line and the Mahomes effect. This comes to pass in the data, as when the 2018 Chiefs pivoted to Damien Williams after Hunt's issues, he operated at 0.26 yards above expectation per rush, and 0 EPA/Rush. Shockingly similar.
So from a purely rushing standpoint, the Chiefs lost nothing by losing Kareem Hunt. Literally nothing, not even an inch of a backwards step. The production is almost exactly the same. The receiving out of the RB position is where this argument gets interesting, because in 2018 the Chiefs had three of the best receiving backs in the NFL on a per catch basis (Hunt, Ware, and Williams in that order).
Damien Williams was by far the worst of the three, but he only got 24 targets. On a per-snap basis, this is more than Kareem, which is interesting to me, because he wasn't as good as Kareem as a receiver. His hands were better though, which may be an outsized skill at the RB position. Regardless, even Kareem Hunt only got three targets per game that season, so despite him being a fantastic receiver, his receiving production was not an especially crucial part of that 2018 defence.
In sum, my answer to your poll question is a definitive no. Losing Kareem made no difference at all to the rush attack. I feel comfortable phrasing that as a statement of fact, and I also don't think the shift of a few receptions per game from him to either Spencer Ware or Damien Williams made that much difference either. I think the difference between Kareem Hunt and the Ware/Williams committee was minimal at best and nonexistent at worst. This wouldn't have pushed them over the 2018 hump.
I laughed pretty hard at the blowout prediction. I'm just not sure (unless the defence generates a lot of turnovers, and I mean a LOT of turnovers) of this offence's capability of putting up 42 points against one of the best defences in the NFL. This isn't to say they can't win. It's not even to say they can't win by double digits, but it's going to have to be driven by the defence instead of the offence.
Man, I’m straight up exhausted. Been unwell lately and having sleep issues. Add to all that the fact I just barely wrapped up this week’s column and I’ve come to this conclusion:
I’m too tired to argue today. Sorry. I will give you a little bit though.
1) Patrick Mahomes’ “somewhat limited arm talent”?
😂🤣😂🤣😂 C’mon, bro! His arm talent is top notch and that’s not just me saying that- you could ask 100 NFL coaches, GMs, scouts, and analysts and they’d agree with me. Stop trying to wind me up.
He’s having, by his own admission, issues this season with his mechanics and also he said recently that he needs to stop overthinking everything and just have fun like he did earlier in his career.
2) You can throw numbers at me all you want but I watched Kareem that season and he looked fantastic. Yet again I will say this: Numbers/metrics/stats are all useful tools but they aren’t everything. Watching players play is vital.
Plus, as you said, it was hypothetical. Dreamers gonna dream. (Note: Damian Williams was amazing for that first Super Bowl team.)
3) Like I said: I’ll keep predicting blowouts until they happen.
Like my former boss said: The beatings will continue until morale improves.
That’s all I got. Time to rest.
No problem buddy. Get well soon, yeah? We can argue about the Chiefs later.