Chiefs Chronicles: NFL Week 15
There's No Such Thing as Luck: Parts 1 & 2, Ad Critical Mass is Reached, The Chiefs' Surprising Ranking, & All the Extra Pop Culture Stuff as Usual
There’s No Such Thing As Luck: Part 1
When the Chiefs play and the game is a little too close (the opponent is within 14 points) or bad things start happening on the field (Harrison Butker misses his first kick of the year) rational people can get some pretty irrational ideas. Things they wouldn’t normally believe become all too real. Like thinking that something they’re doing (or not doing) is somehow impacting the game.
An example of this break from reality happening to an otherwise logical person (me), was caused by “The Lin Elliot Game.” That particular playoff game, if you’re unfamiliar, had one specific element of a horrific car crash: it seemed to be unfolding in slow motion- you could see what was happening and there was absolutely nothing you could do about it. Despite this fact, I’m sure many Chiefs fans around the country tried lots of crazy things to “help the team win.”
The way I experienced it was much worse than for the average fan, though. I had been married for just under a year and was still trying to get my wife Kelly into football. Early in the season she saw a Colts game and thought that their QB, Jim Harbaugh, (yes, that Jim Harbaugh) was cute (really?!?). She decided that if I was going to make her watch football, then she was going to be a Colts fan.
That was fine- until the playoffs rolled around. The Chiefs had gone 13-3 and were the #1 seed with a first-round bye. The Colts had finished 9-7 and were the #5 seed. While KC rested, the Colts went to San Diego and picked up their first playoff win in 24 years (and first as the Indianapolis Colts) against the Chargers by a score of 35-20.
As a reward for that win, the Colts (missing an injured Marshall Faulk) got to go to Kansas City and play the heavily favored Chiefs. I was sure it was going to be a bloodbath. Preparing Kelly for her first disappointment as a football fan I said, “Don’t be surprised if this is a blowout. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and they don’t lose at Arrowhead. The Colts barely made it into the playoffs, so you should at least be proud of that.”
Nothing bad ever happens to overconfident people, right?
Long story short, the Chiefs lost 10-7. It was a miserably cold day and kicking conditions were terrible. A combined total of six FGs were attempted and five of them missed. That was bad, especially since the Chiefs had three of the missed variety and lost by three points. Even one make sends the game to OT and then who knows what could have happened? The Chiefs kicker, Lin Elliott (if you’re still mad, it’s time to let it go Chiefs Kingdom), had his worst day as a pro in what turned out to be his last NFL game.
That all was bad enough for Chiefs fans, but in my house it was so much worse. Every time the Chiefs kicker would line up for a field goal, Kelly would stand up, put her right index finger out, waddle towards me like a drunken little alien, and say, “Elliooott!” drawing out the end of the name in her best E.T. voice. And every time she did that, the Chiefs’ Elliot would miss. He missed from 35, 39, and 42, and her E.T. hoodoo was the cause of those misses. At least that’s what I was pretty sure of by the time the game ended.
Since I was a young and hot-blooded fan, her “joke” wasn’t funny to me. She didn’t really like the Colts. They didn’t mean to her what the Chiefs meant to me. If she hadn’t done her whole E.T. routine, the Chiefs may have won. It was her bad energy and mocking in conjunction with the butterfly effect or chaos theory that had caused those kicks to sail wide. Or something like that. I wasn’t in my right mind.
I’m embarrassed to say, that I was mad at her for two weeks. She, on the other hand, decided football wasn’t that great and pretty much only watched closely during the Super Bowl. For the commercials, of course.
There’s No Such Thing As Luck: Part 2
There is no such thing as luck (a friend of mine always says it’s bad luck to be superstitious😂). It doesn’t exist. The human race is past all that superstitious nonsense, right? We all know whatever can happen will happen- good and bad. It’s common knowledge that a roulette wheel or a flipped coin has no memory. Breaking a mirror or forgetting to throw salt over your shoulder will not cause your house to burn down- those things can all happen to one person, but that’s what we call a coincidence.
I believe everything that can happen, (good, bad, or indifferent) takes place on a Bell Curve. Here’s a quick refresher on them:
Looking at our “Luck” Bell Curve, most people have things break pretty evenly in their lives. Nothing too great, nothing too terrible. They go to work, pay their bills, and live mostly middle-of-the-road lives. As Henry David Thoreau said, “The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.” That doesn’t sound like a fantastic way to live, and compared to the folks to the right of the median of the curve, it isn’t.
Some Chiefs who live in the middle are Justin Watson and Noah Gray- they get to play in the NFL but are mostly role-players and don’t get much credit or blame. They make the occasional big play, but aren’t household names. Fans don’t know much about them- they usually blend into the background the way most of us do.
Those to the right of the quietly desperate mean (middle) of the curve, are the people who, more often than not, have good things happen to them. They buy at the absolute bottom of any market (housing, stock, crypto, super), and sell at the all-time high. They could fall into a sewer and come out smelling like roses. You know the ones I’m talking about. You aren’t jealous of them at all.
Two examples of Chiefs who fit this profile are Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Even during “hard times” they still play at a high level and are top performers at their respective positions. Plus, they have millions of dollars (in Patrick’s case hundreds of millions) and are either happily married with kids or are dating (in Travis’ case) 12-time Grammy winner and biggest pop star in the world, Taylor Swift.
Finally, we have everyone who resides on the left side of the curve. For them, it’s the opposite- awful things are the norm. This isn’t the place to list all of the things those poor people have to deal with, but we all know at least one person who fits this description. They are like Wile E. Coyote (who never gets what he wants most and is constantly being blown up or crushed or flattened, etc.), George Costanza (his life story is more tragic than a survivor of the sinking of the Andrea Doria), and Peter Parker (sure, he’s Spider-Man, but everything else in his life is hardship and tragedy) all rolled into one person. They always expect the worst, so they don’t get their hopes up too high.
The Chiefs don’t really have anyone who fits here, they are playing NFL football for a living after all (it’s hard to be a truly tragic figure as a pro athlete, though it happens). If we just look at performance vs. expectation, then we’d have to go with MVS, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Justyn Ross. Before the season there was talk that the Chiefs had maybe their best receiver room ever or at least a solid group that would have good production. That optimistic chatter didn’t quite pan out. Now Skyy is on IR, Toney is out (yet another injury) against the Raiders, MVS has seen his snap count steadily drop, and Ross hasn’t played for a while due to a six-game suspension for an off-field issue with his girlfriend.
So we have three main groups that people fall into when it comes to having “luck” or a lack thereof. To demonstrate, this video shows the spectrum of “luck” as applied to three distinct people. Each of them corresponds to a player group on the Chiefs:
What does that leave us with? Here’s a recap of the groups:
The George Costanza “Luck” Group: Patrick & Travis. Everything they touch turns to gold. Since it involves George, this would seem like the Bizarro World definition of “luck” but apparently you don’t have to stay forever if you’re on the “unlucky” end of the curve- who knew? George also taught us that a person can go back to being “unlucky” in no time at all.
The Jerry Seinfeld “Luck” Group: Justin Watson, Noah Gray, and all those regular guys that hold the team together like glue (⬅️the Raiders were cheating?!?). They tend to break even.
The Elaine Benes “Luck” Group: MVS, Skyy Moore, KT, and Justyn Ross. Their “luck” has looked a lot like this dance. Maybe this group can turn it all around somehow. Or Patrick can just throw it to this guy all the time.
Jerry: “It was one of those problems I hoped would just go away.”
George: “(sighs) Well, sometimes you can’t help these people until they hit rock bottom.”
Jerry: “And by then you’ve lost interest.”
Now that we know that “luck” is just the word superstitious people use for Normal or Gaussian Distribution, we can all move on with our lives.
Ad Critical Mass is Reached
The ads featuring Patrick Mahomes need to slow down a little (Kelce to a lesser extent). There are just too many of them. Also, they aren’t always great. The one above just makes Patrick look like a cocky jerk. Is someone in his circle trying to sabotage him? It reminds me of the time Homer Simpson set up a kid to lose a singing competition so Lisa could win.
The only part of that commercial I like is when Andy Reid breaks at the end and starts to laugh. For some reason, people breaking always cracks me up.
The Chiefs Surprising Ranking
It was very surprising to learn during the Patriots game that the Chiefs have the worst 4th quarter-scoring offense in the NFL. I know it hasn’t been great because the Chiefs seem to lack that killer instinct needed to put games out of reach (among other reasons), but I had no idea it was that bad. Hopefully, their top-ranked last two minutes of the 2nd quarter-scoring offense can make up for it until they figure the 4th out. If anyone can do it, it’s these guys:
That’s all for this week. I’m glad the Chiefs play on Monday- I was a little slower than usual writing this one. Now it’s time for me to sleep. On Monday the Chiefs will get right and beat the Raiders! LET’S GO!!!!!!!!! Don’t be overconfident, though. Remember: “Careful, Icarus…”
I really enjoyed the breakdown of “luck”. Enlightening! So according to your evaluation, it’s not about what we do during the game rather our attitude about what happens on the field that matters.