Where I've Been, What's Wrong With Mahomes & A Note For All The Haters, Raiders Week: Part 131, Patrick Mahomes is Phil Connors, Ups & Downs in Fake Football, & As Much More As I Have Time For!!!
A morning cup of coffee, a good article and an amazing video of a patriots fan seething with anger when trying to discount Patrick Mahomes. Thanks, my day can now begin.
"The recent history of the NFL is littered with the bones of all the people who’ve doubted Patrick."
And people like myself, who have perpetually claimed that his success is based on his feet and not his arm, which therefore means that he was relying pretty hard on Hill and Kelce, have come out smelling like roses. Listen, I entirely agree that Patrick genuinely seems to care more about the Chiefs' legacy than his own, and that's good, because like you discussed, his individual legacy is suffering right now.
We've talked a lot about Patrick. I would not self-describe as a hater of his. You may describe me as one. I'm not sure, but here's the thing. Patrick Mahomes used to be a player who would generate negative EPA/Play in a game twice all season. Now he's generated negative EPA/Play twice already, and we're not halfway through his season yet. Points below expectation is putting your team in a position to lose. Patrick has done it twice. That's still not a lot, but Josh Allen has also done it just twice. Jayden Daniels hasn't done it at all.
When comparing QBs using wins, it's basically implying that it's Jayden Daniels' fault that he generated 0.21 EPA/Play in a loss to the Buccaneers, meanwhile Patrick generated -0.19 in a win over Cincinnati. Somehow despite Patrick playing so much worse than Jayden the end result still came down to the QBs in some way. I'm not buying it. This is what I like to call the Mahomes hypothetical (formerly the Brady hypothetical).
'Yes, Patrick played really badly, but if he would've HAD to play better then he would've played better.'
That's the crux of the disconnect. It's a hypothetical, meaning it's unverifiable and we can only have opinions on it. It's possible that if Brock Purdy had played better, then Patrick wouldn't have struggled so much against SF, but it's also possible that his defence carried him to the win.
My opinion is that football players are trying their best all the time, so the Mahomes (Brady) hypothetical is nonsense, but I've been around long enough to know that the majority believe that people like Tom and Patrick keep something in reserve for the fourth quarter, in an effort to make a fourth quarter comeback out of a potential blowout win. For some reason.
Such a line of reasoning doesn't make any sense to me. It's much easier for me to believe that Patrick is trying his hardest to score every time he touches the ball, and simply fails more than he used to. The reasons for this can be debated. My working theory is that, considering Patrick has always had trouble throwing into tight windows, a poor receiver group disproportionately affects him, with his aversion to throwing anywhere near any defenders explaining the extremely conservative playstyle he's adopted, and that playstyle explaining the really jagged downturn in results over the last two years. Other people have other theories, but nobody is denying that he's failing more than he ever used to.
My theory would suggest that as soon as he gets back to having one of the best supporting casts in the NFL like he used to have, his limited (in this context, limited means great but not elite. Poor only for a player of Patrick's stature) arm talent can go back to being masked by his exceptional feet and otherworldly ability to always find the open man. Other people's theories would suggest that MVPatrick is dead and never coming back.
Funnily enough given our prior interactions, I think I may have ended up on the sympathetic side of the Patrick Mahomes argument. Not as sympathetic as you are, but I don't openly claim to be so biased like you do, so that's standard. Despite my sympathies for Patrick, he's still not among the top of the top QBs in the NFL anymore until further notice. Put his numbers in a straight fight against Joe Burrow's numbers, and Patrick has no argument for winning that fight, and I've written articles admitting to being a Joe Burrow hater.
It really hurts to have to say things like that, because I love Patrick Mahomes. In the pre-Game Manager Mahomes days he was one of my favourite NFL players of all time. I'm going to give it until he gets an elite receiver (which DeAndre Hopkins is not) before I give up and admit the Patrick I loved is lost and gone forever, but it's been a long time since Patrick threw passes longer than the NFL average.
If it weren't for the snobbish media coverage that comes with being 2x defending champions right now, the Chiefs would be a fun team to root for. Scrappy underdogs that you just hope will keep riding the one possession game luck, with a QB who's clearly declined, but is still trying. They remind me of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL, who went on a fabulous Cinderella run to try to win their third championship in a row that they get no credit for, because everybody so hated the Tampa Bay Lightning by that point.
Maybe if I switch to watching the games on mute, I can root for the Chiefs, and I can root for Patrick. That'd be fun. This comment actually made me sad. I did not expect to get such a feeling talking about Patrick Mahomes. I legitimately want him to be great again, and it sucks that he isn't right now.
I absolutely love fantasy football and keeping many mental notes of useful statistic information in my head about key players around the league that are dominating…however, I had no idea Mahomes has thrown more INTs the TDs. The Chiefs are undefeated and that just shows how stats go out the window. Winning cures or blinds us until we’re hit with a loss.
I think it's worth noting that now four of his INTs include two tipped at the line of scrimmage, one WR falling down, and one bouncing off a WR's hands (which was a double whammy for his stats since that would have been a TD). On the TD side, it seems like the Chiefs finally figured out how to run the ball at the goal line, so that's probably cost him a couple of those. Mahomes isn't above criticism, and he's had some bad throws this year, but you're right that just looking at the stats isn't telling the whole story.
And yes, I did like my own post. Someone on Substack told me that liking your own post is just supporting yourself. Since I write about sports does that make me an athletic supporter?
(Hold for laughter/groans)
An old joke, I know. Actually, liking my column before anyone else feels more like a street performer throwing a couple bucks into his hat to show people that it’s ok to give him money. It must be! There’s already almost $5 in his hat!
Feel free to throw likes (hearts) into my metaphorical hat. It’s going to a good cause. I won’t buy beer with the proceeds, I promise.
A morning cup of coffee, a good article and an amazing video of a patriots fan seething with anger when trying to discount Patrick Mahomes. Thanks, my day can now begin.
That’s exactly what I was thinking!
"The recent history of the NFL is littered with the bones of all the people who’ve doubted Patrick."
And people like myself, who have perpetually claimed that his success is based on his feet and not his arm, which therefore means that he was relying pretty hard on Hill and Kelce, have come out smelling like roses. Listen, I entirely agree that Patrick genuinely seems to care more about the Chiefs' legacy than his own, and that's good, because like you discussed, his individual legacy is suffering right now.
We've talked a lot about Patrick. I would not self-describe as a hater of his. You may describe me as one. I'm not sure, but here's the thing. Patrick Mahomes used to be a player who would generate negative EPA/Play in a game twice all season. Now he's generated negative EPA/Play twice already, and we're not halfway through his season yet. Points below expectation is putting your team in a position to lose. Patrick has done it twice. That's still not a lot, but Josh Allen has also done it just twice. Jayden Daniels hasn't done it at all.
When comparing QBs using wins, it's basically implying that it's Jayden Daniels' fault that he generated 0.21 EPA/Play in a loss to the Buccaneers, meanwhile Patrick generated -0.19 in a win over Cincinnati. Somehow despite Patrick playing so much worse than Jayden the end result still came down to the QBs in some way. I'm not buying it. This is what I like to call the Mahomes hypothetical (formerly the Brady hypothetical).
'Yes, Patrick played really badly, but if he would've HAD to play better then he would've played better.'
That's the crux of the disconnect. It's a hypothetical, meaning it's unverifiable and we can only have opinions on it. It's possible that if Brock Purdy had played better, then Patrick wouldn't have struggled so much against SF, but it's also possible that his defence carried him to the win.
My opinion is that football players are trying their best all the time, so the Mahomes (Brady) hypothetical is nonsense, but I've been around long enough to know that the majority believe that people like Tom and Patrick keep something in reserve for the fourth quarter, in an effort to make a fourth quarter comeback out of a potential blowout win. For some reason.
Such a line of reasoning doesn't make any sense to me. It's much easier for me to believe that Patrick is trying his hardest to score every time he touches the ball, and simply fails more than he used to. The reasons for this can be debated. My working theory is that, considering Patrick has always had trouble throwing into tight windows, a poor receiver group disproportionately affects him, with his aversion to throwing anywhere near any defenders explaining the extremely conservative playstyle he's adopted, and that playstyle explaining the really jagged downturn in results over the last two years. Other people have other theories, but nobody is denying that he's failing more than he ever used to.
My theory would suggest that as soon as he gets back to having one of the best supporting casts in the NFL like he used to have, his limited (in this context, limited means great but not elite. Poor only for a player of Patrick's stature) arm talent can go back to being masked by his exceptional feet and otherworldly ability to always find the open man. Other people's theories would suggest that MVPatrick is dead and never coming back.
Funnily enough given our prior interactions, I think I may have ended up on the sympathetic side of the Patrick Mahomes argument. Not as sympathetic as you are, but I don't openly claim to be so biased like you do, so that's standard. Despite my sympathies for Patrick, he's still not among the top of the top QBs in the NFL anymore until further notice. Put his numbers in a straight fight against Joe Burrow's numbers, and Patrick has no argument for winning that fight, and I've written articles admitting to being a Joe Burrow hater.
It really hurts to have to say things like that, because I love Patrick Mahomes. In the pre-Game Manager Mahomes days he was one of my favourite NFL players of all time. I'm going to give it until he gets an elite receiver (which DeAndre Hopkins is not) before I give up and admit the Patrick I loved is lost and gone forever, but it's been a long time since Patrick threw passes longer than the NFL average.
If it weren't for the snobbish media coverage that comes with being 2x defending champions right now, the Chiefs would be a fun team to root for. Scrappy underdogs that you just hope will keep riding the one possession game luck, with a QB who's clearly declined, but is still trying. They remind me of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL, who went on a fabulous Cinderella run to try to win their third championship in a row that they get no credit for, because everybody so hated the Tampa Bay Lightning by that point.
Maybe if I switch to watching the games on mute, I can root for the Chiefs, and I can root for Patrick. That'd be fun. This comment actually made me sad. I did not expect to get such a feeling talking about Patrick Mahomes. I legitimately want him to be great again, and it sucks that he isn't right now.
Thanks for commenting, Robbie. Your comments are always detailed, so when I get some time tonight I’ll try and respond to it properly.
I did miss your note, so I will now express my condolences for your loss. Granny Patsy sounds like she was a wonderful lady.
Thank you, Darin. She was. A friend of mine said it best, “She was the Granny that everyone deserves.”
I absolutely love fantasy football and keeping many mental notes of useful statistic information in my head about key players around the league that are dominating…however, I had no idea Mahomes has thrown more INTs the TDs. The Chiefs are undefeated and that just shows how stats go out the window. Winning cures or blinds us until we’re hit with a loss.
That’s how it should be. He makes the clutch plays when he needs to and they keep winning. End of story.
I think it's worth noting that now four of his INTs include two tipped at the line of scrimmage, one WR falling down, and one bouncing off a WR's hands (which was a double whammy for his stats since that would have been a TD). On the TD side, it seems like the Chiefs finally figured out how to run the ball at the goal line, so that's probably cost him a couple of those. Mahomes isn't above criticism, and he's had some bad throws this year, but you're right that just looking at the stats isn't telling the whole story.
I couldn’t have said it better. Or in so few words.😂
And yes, I did like my own post. Someone on Substack told me that liking your own post is just supporting yourself. Since I write about sports does that make me an athletic supporter?
(Hold for laughter/groans)
An old joke, I know. Actually, liking my column before anyone else feels more like a street performer throwing a couple bucks into his hat to show people that it’s ok to give him money. It must be! There’s already almost $5 in his hat!
Feel free to throw likes (hearts) into my metaphorical hat. It’s going to a good cause. I won’t buy beer with the proceeds, I promise.