Chiefs Chronicles: Why Buffalo Beating KC Is Probably A Good Thing- 2024 Season Week 12
This All Seems Familiar For Some Reason, Never Forget The Christmas Panic of 2023, What Taylor Knew In Advance AKA The Prophecy II: The Swiftening, Life Is Just A Fantasy, & Other Random Items!!!
This All Seems Familiar For Some Reason
Am I the only one feeling that very distinctive feeling that a person can only experience in French? You know the one. Like if you diluted the movie Groundhog Day down to a two-word phrase. Actually, that’s not a great way to explain it, considering the fact that “Groundhog Day” is actually comprised of literally two words. Thinking about that has led me to the surprising revelation that the phrase “Groundhog Day” is the American English equivalent of that French particular phrase. Oh man, what is it again? It’s the one that’s used to describe the feeling of having previously experienced a present situation, sometime in the past.
I’ve got total déjà vu trying to remember what it is! I swear I’ve figured this out before…
Isn’t it strange how, yet again, the Chiefs season brings us back around to Groundhog Day. It’s like déjà vu all over again. (Note: It’s best to reread this paragraph, including the note, several times- it’s multi-layered, much like a time-loop or a delicious gameday dip. Similarly, when compared to a dip consisting of 6 or more levels of ingredients, it will not only give up varying flavors with each bite, but it will reveal even more secrets when it’s repeating in your stomach and digestive tract later that night. That last part doesn’t apply nearly as much to a time-loop, but it’s more applicable than you might think.)
As you all probably remember, the Chiefs lost to the Bills last Sunday. Was I disappointed? Yep. That goes without saying. They had a 15-game winning streak (the longest in franchise history) on the line and the Bills are a top AFC contender. Losing the game cost them what would been been a nice win-cushion (which is sort of like a pincushion, but made entirely of wins) heading into the playoff stretch run.
Was I, on the other hand, in any way surprised that they lost to the Bills? Not even a little bit. Which makes the reaction of some fans baffling to me.
“The Chiefs are doomed! They finally played a good team and were exposed! Patrick Mahomes is washed up and we should sign Daniel Jones! Oh Taylor, why have you forsaken us?!?” With all of the histrionics and hand-wringing going on amongst a certain vocal segment of Chiefs Kingdom, you’d think a regular-season loss to the Bills was something new for the Chiefs. And not only new, but also an accurate predictor of their prospective results involving the Bills in the playoffs (i.e. they lost to them already, they’re going to lose to them again), and their overall likelihood of winning a championship.
Again, nope, nope, aaand a-nope.
Here’s how the Chiefs have fared against the Bills in the regular season since 2020:
Chiefs vs Bills Regular Season Results Since 2020 NFL Season
(Winner marked in Bold)
10/19/20: Chiefs beat Bills 26-17
10/10/21: Bills beat Chiefs 38-20
10/16/22: Bills beat Chiefs 24-20
12/10/23: Bills beat Chiefs 20-17
11/17/24: Bills beat Chiefs 30-21
In case you’re tired (sorry, but this is going to come out mere hours before Sunday’s game against the Panthers) and the numbers aren’t making sense, that puts the Chiefs at 1-4 against Josh Allen & the Bills during the regular season since 2020. Granted, only beating the Bills once during the regular season in the last five years isn’t ideal. But is it unusual? The fact that they’ve beaten the Chiefs four years in a row says it isn’t. It’s like it’s happening over and over, or something…
So, what impact has their poor recent regular season record versus the Bills had on the Chiefs postseason results when playing them again? Let’s take a look:
Chiefs vs Bills Playoff Results Since 2020 NFL Playoffs
(Winner marked in Bold)
1/24/21: Chiefs beat Bills 38-24
1/23/22: Chiefs beat Bills 42-36
N/A: Teams didn’t meet in the 2022 NFL Playoffs
1/21/24: Chiefs beat Bills 27-24
N/A: TBD
Clearly, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs usually losing to the Josh Allen-led Bills during the regular season is not an indicator that they will lose in a playoff matchup later the same season. The opposite has been true in every applicable same-year playoff rematch so far.
Now we need to see if that same mostly-poor record against the Bills in the regular season indicates anything when it comes to their championship chances. Here are those results:
Chiefs Final Playoff Results Since 2020 NFL Season
(Winner marked in Bold)
2/7/21: Buccaneers beat Chiefs 31-9 in Super Bowl LV
1/30/22: Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24 in AFC Conference Championship
2/12/23: Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII
2/11/24: Chiefs beat 49ers 25-22 in Super Bowl LVIII
2/9/25: TBD for Super Bowl LIX
We can see from this list that the results are kind of all over the place:
In seasons where the Chiefs lost to the Bills in the regular season, then beat them in the playoffs they: lost in the Conference Championship to the Bengals, and beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Win-Playoff Loss: (1-1)
In the one season where the Chiefs lost to the Bills in the regular season and didn’t face them in the playoffs, they beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Win-Playoff Loss: (1-0)
In the one season where the Chiefs beat the Bills in the regular season and the playoffs, they lost in the Super Bowl to the Bucs.
Super Bowl Win-Super Bowl Loss: (0-1)
This season, the Chiefs lost to the Bills in the regular season but the rest of the season, including the playoffs and Super Bowl, are TBD.
Super Bowl Win-Playoff or Super Bowl Loss: (?-?)
So, what does all of that information add up to? The following:
Since 2020, the Chiefs have lost to the Bills four out of five times during the regular season (the last four meetings). After those four consecutive regular season losses to the Bills, disregarding all other variables, the Chiefs have: Won two Super Bowls (the last two against the Eagles & 49ers) and lost the Conference Championship to the Bengals. This season’s outcome is still TBD.
Taking into account that recent history, we can infer that the Chiefs losing to the Bills in the regular season isn’t a bad thing. It means they will make it to the Conference Championship game- out of their three opportunities to do so, they have accomplished it three times. Once they get to the Conference Championship game, we know that they have a very good chance to advance to and win the Super Bowl- they’ve done this twice in three opportunities.
It will be ok, Chiefs Kingdom. It usually is.
Never Forget The Christmas Panic of 2023
Speaking of reacting negatively to a loss, does anyone else remember how terrible they felt after the Chiefs were beaten by an inferior Raiders team in Week 16 last year? I know I do. The Chiefs Chronicles the following week was positively dripping with panic and featured a nightmare image that I helped to create by feeding the Substack AI picture-generator lots of doom-laden sentences featuring the Chiefs:
Thankfully, I was far from the only person losing it that week. Here are some of the best examples I found of people freaking out over the loss:
Emotional Response: The team is terrible and going downhill. Realistically, all hope is lost.
Emotional Response: Mahomes is broken and no one fears him anymore because the team is awful .
Emotional Response: Patrick Mahomes is broken beyond repair and the offense couldn’t be worse. This team is going nowhere fast, will lose immediately in the playoffs (if they even make it there), and should probably be in full rebuild mode next season.
Despite everything we’ve all seen since the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes, most of us fell prey to our doubt during that game and in the days after. The Raiders had just embarrassed our beloved Chiefs in front of a national audience. The Chiefs had compounded that embarrassment by playing a sloppy, unwatchable brand of football and giving a winnable game away to their biggest historical rival.
Thankfully, all of us Chicken Littles who said “the sky is falling” were as wrong as we could be.
The Chiefs regrouped, won their last two regular season games, took the long way through the playoffs but won every game anyway, and then came back to beat the 49ers in overtime in Super Bowl LVIII to cap off an improbable playoff run.
All of us would have said that outcome was impossible in the days after the loss to the Raiders.
We should have known better. We should have had faith. We should have said this:
In the aftermath of the Chiefs loss to the Bills, many members of Chiefs Kingdom are freaking out. There’s no need for that. Remember:
Panic kills rational thought. The Chiefs won’t panic and neither should you.
Try to relax. Your worry and stress won’t help you and it certainly won’t help the team.
Reread this column from the start if you need some encouragement or some facts to use against the haters.
“All of this has happened before. All of this will happen again.” - Number Six (one for all you BSG & sci-fi lovers out there)
The last time we all freaked out about a big loss, the Chiefs won a Super Bowl and 15 straight games spanning two seasons.
The Chiefs should be getting Isiah Pacheco and Charles Omenihu back next week for the Black Friday game against the Raiders.
By picking up D.J. Humphries, Brett Veach got Patrick Mahomes a LT who should be a significant upgrade protecting his blindside.
If none of those things are helping you, I want you took take a long look at the following picture:
NEVER FORGET, CHIEFS KINGDOM
What Taylor Knew In Advance AKA The Prophecy II: The Swiftening
Things are starting to get strange.
In 2021 Taylor Swift wrote the song “Carolina” for the movie Where The Crawdads Sing. The Chiefs last played the Panthers in 2020, a year before she wrote the song. Kansas City wasn’t scheduled by the NFL to play Carolina until after she wrote the song (in 2021) and after she started dating Travis Kelce/became a Chiefs fan (in 2023).
This will be only the 8th time the two teams have faced off. Interestingly, the word “Carolina” has 8 letters in it. The Chiefs lead the lifetime series over the Panthers, 5-2. If you use the “8” from their total number of matchups, including today’s, then add the 5 wins and 2 losses together (5 + 2 = 7) from their previous matchups, followed by putting those two numbers next to each other, you get “87” which we all know is Travis Kelce’s number.
Spooky.
I think I’m onto something here. I’m not quite sure what it is yet, but I’m gonna keep digging.
This is it. It has to be time for my weekly prediction of a blowout to come true. The Chiefs are angry and they need to take it out on somebody. The Panthers are the team standing in front of them. Something has to give.
My prediction: The Chiefs beat the Panthers by a score of 48-10
Life Is Just A Fantasy
I remember being blown away when someone played this song using their massive speakers and brand new (not to mention wildly expensive) Compact Disc player. The sound quality was like nothing I’d ever heard before. It has a crazy intro too, so you can imagine it blasting out of those giant speakers at an ear-splitting volume.
The reason it’s here is because it’s called “Fantasy” and this is my quick Fantasy Football update. My awesomely named team didn’t break 100 points last week. The dastardly Nick’s team, on the other hand, scored over 200. ‘Nuff said on that front.
This week’s opponent is Warren’s 6th-place team (Conquistadors) and I think I have a shot at winning. We shall see. I can’t wait until I get Isiah Pacheco back next week!
Here is this week’s team name, which is quite fitting considering my record and place in the standings:
Faithful reader Nathan mentioned last week how weird it was that Chiefs Chronicles didn’t come out at 4 in the morning on gameday. Your wish is my command, Nathan! Hopefully, there isn’t anything wrong with it- I’m too tired to reread or edit right now.
I hope everybody has a great day and, as always…
GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think you're right Gary. Nobody really cares about a regular season loss to the Bills, and nobody really ought to either. It doesn't change anything, and therefore doesn't matter. I can go on another playoff tangent about some games being given an artificially raised level of importance creates a false narrative that the Chiefs have the Bills' number, despite the overall record between the two being 4-4 over the last five years. Nobody has anybody's number, as far am I'm concerned.
Much like Peyton Manning ending his career with a 3-2 playoff record over Tom Brady once all was said and done, the better player will end up with the winning playoff record eventually. Whether Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes will finish as the better player is yet to be seen. Neither are even halfway through their career yet, knocking on wood as I say that.
I think you're right in your 'emotional response' section that the Chiefs have no aura anymore. In one of my articles last year (I forget which) I used the sentence: The modern day Chiefs in the regular season are not a very intimidating opponent. I expected to have to defend myself very rigorously on that one, but no. I didn't get any blowback at all for it. That showed me that the aura is dead. The Chiefs these days are thought of like the 2006 New England Patriots. A good team. A team that will be difficult to beat, but not a team you have nightmares about anymore.
We all know what happened there. Things turned back around dramatically in 2007, and the aura came right back in New England. Can the same thing happen in KC? I hope so. 2018-19 Patrick Mahomes is one of my favourite players ever. I want him back. Right now he and his team are not to be feared, and I think everybody knows and can accept that, even if they (like I) do not like it very much, because the NFL desperately needs some greatness. It hasn't seen any in a while. I don't care if it comes from the Chiefs or anybody else. I just want to see some.
If the Chiefs do pull off the three in a row this season, I hope they at least finish with a great looking regular season record, to cover up last year's paper tiger, and make everybody forget that it ever happened. That way this can be remembered as a great era in NFL history, instead of two flukes in a row.
Once again, I think we're both pulling in the same direction here Gary, just holding the team to a different standard. I (as a neutral, albeit one with a soft spot for the Chiefs) want to see all-time greatness, and therefore am slightly disappointed with the last few KC seasons. You (as a lifelong fan) just want to win, and therefore are very happy with the way things have transpired. I want the aura back. I want the fear back. I want the constant Patrick Mahomes fellating to actually feel deserved. This is why I can often sound so negative on the Chiefs, and perhaps it's true that my standards are too high.
I, as a child of the new century, just want to see something the likes of which we'll never see again occur in my lifetime. The threepeat would be that, but as we talked about last week, I'm less convinced than you are that that's looking so good.
BTW, I have a curiosity. Were the Chiefs ever down ten points in this game? Did it ruin the whole ten point plus thing that I see you bring up sometimes?