Chiefs Chronicles: The Chiefs Are The Kings of Statistical Improbability- 2024 Season Week 11
The Improbable Streak Continues, 4 Things That Are More Likely Than The Chiefs' Streak, Back To Buffalo, There Is No Yesterday, A Swift Reaction, & So Much More (or possibly less)!!!
The Improbable Streak Continues
Despite the fact that the Chiefs have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat over and over since Week 17 of last season, I’m sure I wasn’t the only member of Chiefs Kingdom that was surprised they extended their winning streak to 15 games last Sunday. We were as surprised as Ethel, when she was mooned at the supermarket in Ray Stevens’ classic* song “The Streak”. (*Note: My late grandfather AKA “Poppy” Mack, along with my dad and uncle, would always play us kids Ray Stevens songs and videos. His immature brand of humor was right up our alley! When I started thinking about the Chiefs’ and their improbable winning streak, this song immediately began playing on repeat in my head. It’s playing there still.)
(🎵“Boogity, boogity!”🎵)
Actually, “surprised” isn’t a strong enough word to describe the feelings we all experienced when Leo Chenal (and the rest of the D-Line on that side) trucked Broncos OL Alex Forsyth, did his best Superman impression (BTW, I think if he hadn’t gotten to it that Karlaftis would have), and blocked what should have been the game-winning FG. Since that word doesn’t adequately capture the moment, it’s time to bust out the old thesaurus (which is a word that has always sounded like the name of a dinosaur with a very extensive vocabulary to me) and find one that works better.
Let’s take a look at our choices:
Perplexed- To be utterly baffled or confused. (Note: I wasn’t, but lots of Broncos fans were.)
Floored- To be surprised or confused so much that you can’t think of what to say or do next. (Note: This just doesn’t work- I said “Wow” at least 10 times.)
Bewildered- Perplexed and confused; very puzzled (Note: I just think of this movie scene⬇️when I read this definition.)
Dumbfounded- Greatly astonished or amazed (Note: Yes, but it has the word “dumb” in it, so I’ll pass.)
Flabbergasted- Overcome with astonishment; amazed; astounded (Weirdly satisfying to say, plus the definition is spot on. Ding ding ding! We have a winner!)
The more I think about the Chiefs 15-game winning streak, the more I wonder just how statistically improbable it is. To try and get a better grasp on how difficult it is to win just one game, I looked at ESPN’s in-game Win Probability graphs, to figure out the Chiefs lowest win probability percentage during each of their last 15 wins. Here’s what I found:
Chiefs Lowest In-Game Win Probability During Streak:
Bengals- 27.3%
at Chargers- 26%
Dolphins- 52.8%
at Bills- 29.4%
at Ravens- 38.7%
49ers- 12.3%
Ravens- 42.4%
Bengals- 27.8%
at Falcons- 36%
at Chargers- 24.8%
Saints- 55%
at 49ers- 44.6%
at Raiders- 54.1%
Buccaneers- 30.3%
Broncos- 20%
Or we can look at it this way:
50%-55% (+) to win: 3 games
40%-49.99% (+) to win: 2 games
30%-39.99% (+) to win: 3 games
20%-29.99% (+) to win: 6 games
10%-19.99% (+) to win: 1 game
(Note: My memories of watching the Chiefs during the ongoing win streak lines up perfectly with these results. There was a point during the majority of these games (12 out of 15!) that I was convinced they were going to lose.)
I took all of those numbers, figured out some averages (factoring in such things as strength of opponent, weather, home or away game, presence of Taylor Swift, etc.), leveraged some online probability calculation tools, added a little KC-style BBQ sauce to taste, and then ran everything through my “Made-Up Net Statistical Tabulation Equation Result” or “MUNSTER” Formula (patent-pending, so I can’t break it down for you right now), to let you know exactly how statistically improbable the Chiefs winning streak has been so far.
And the results are…
Based on my calculations (and my eyes- my heart as a fan is another matter), the Chiefs 15-game win streak is so statistically improbable as to be virtually impossible. For the sake of comparison: If I were to flip a coin 15 times (factoring in a probability of it coming up heads at 50%) with the desired outcome being heads coming up 15 times in a row (heads = one win), that outcome has a 0.00305% or 1 in 32,768 probability of occurring. That result is much more likely than the Chiefs current win streak. In fact, I reckon the Chiefs streak is pretty much this:
(Top Secret Note For Chiefs Fans Only: Oh, wait. When I started writing this I totally forgot that the refs and the NFL are cheating for the Chiefs (and us) because of Taylor Swift, Jackson Mahomes, and the Illuminati. It’s an absolutely enormous conspiracy, the likes of which humanity has never encountered before. The sheer scale of it boggles the mind or it would if anyone on the outside knew about it. The means being used to keep everyone with any knowledge of it quiet must be something outside normal human comprehension- THEY can’t even keep the UFO (UAP) people completely quiet, no matter how hard they try.
Since everything is nicely stacked in KC’s favor, actual probabilities may vary.)
4 Things That Are More Likely Than The Chiefs' Streak
Now that we are all aware just how unlikely (but completely amazing!) the Chiefs’ win streak has been to this point, let’s take a quick look at four things that are more statistically probable:
Catching a Foul Ball at a Baseball Game- 1 in 835 chance
Cracking a Double-Yolk Egg- about 1 in 1,000 chance
Bowling a Perfect Game (for an amateur)- 1 in 11,500 chance
Having This Happen To You While Remodeling- 1 in 1.5 million chance
Back To Buffalo
I’m nothing if not stubborn. Every week I pick a blowout, and every week the Chiefs somehow squeak out a win. I know that how I pick the games in my little Chiefs column has no bearing on the outcome, but why mess with a winning formula?
My prediction for tomorrow’s game is:
Chiefs destroy the Bills by a score of 34-17
Speaking of not messing with a winning formula, here’s this⬇️. You’re welcome.
There Is No Yesterday
First of all, There Is No Yesterday sounds like an upcoming, big-budget James Bond movie that I would absolutely go to a theater and see!
Sadly, though, it isn’t the title of the new 007 movie.
“There is no yesterday,” has become my mantra for the rest of the fantasy football season. I have to win out to even have a shot at the playoffs, so I can’t dwell on past events. The fact that the last place team beat me last week by a measly 5.5 points isn’t on my mind at all. It’s completely forgotten. (Note: You’re the worst, Kristopher.)
Facing Nick’s evil (is it the team that’s evil or is it Nick that’s evil?) first place team (Likely Beating You) isn’t the greatest way to start my playoff run. The fact that my three best running backs are either on their BYE week (Hubbard & Connor) or not quite back from injury yet (Isiah Pacheco) hurts me bad. I’m starting Denver rookie Audric Estime and Raheem Mostert. Yuck.
My team has been decimated by injury and hampered by inconsistent performances by key players. My receiving corps’ success currently hinges on DHop and Zay Flowers killing it. Also, I’m actually starting ex-Chief MVS (who scored an insane 29.90 points in his first start for the Saints) as my WR3 and the supremely unreliable (for fantasy purposes and kind of for real-life at the moment) Xavier Worthy in the FLEX. I have some hope here, at least.
Harrison Butker’s on IR so I picked up Justin Tucker (who suddenly has a case of the yips). I wanted to get the Chiefs’ temporary kicker, but I feel like it will bite me if I do (I might still do it). Last, but not least, I’m starting the Chiefs Defense against Buffalo. I have faith they can shut those no good Buffaloes (that’s what my step-mom, Beverly calls them) out tomorrow!
Nick has Saquon and AJ Brown, who already got him a combined 55.30 points on TNF. He is projected to beat me by a score of 181.63-122.62.
Things are looking grim. At least I have an awesome team name this week…
A Swift Reaction
After reading last weeks column, faithful Chiefs Chronicles reader (and Swiftie) Katie sent me this message:
“Taylor Swift has a song on her newest (post-Travis) album called The Prophecy, does this factor into your post this week?
Where do the connections end??😜”
My response?
“The idea came to me in a dream.
I was in a cabin deep in the forest and I could hear a woman singing somewhere nearby. She was singing a song about the future.”
I hope that answers your question, Katie. Thank you for reading!😉
I think that just about wraps it up for this week. The sickness that has been messing up my life for the past 17 days, seems to have almost run its course. Does that mean there’s a chance for an earlier Chiefs Chronicles next week, you ask?
Your guess is as good as mine.
Have a great Sunday and, as always…
Great article this week but nothing about how Patrick had to be helped off the field because he blew out his ACL a couple weeks ago and Taylor healed him on the sideline. What are you trying to hide? Just saying, Chiefs best put a ring on that finger if they win it all this year.
Not sure how to feel when the article comes out before 2AM 😂