The Improbable Streak Continues, 4 Things That Are More Likely Than The Chiefs' Streak, Back To Buffalo, There Is No Yesterday, A Swift Reaction, & So Much More (or possibly less)!!!
Great article this week but nothing about how Patrick had to be helped off the field because he blew out his ACL a couple weeks ago and Taylor healed him on the sideline. What are you trying to hide? Just saying, Chiefs best put a ring on that finger if they win it all this year.
Your week 4 article came through around 4AM my time while I was in a hospital room with my wife who thankfully just got a really bad stomach bug or food poisoning, and it’s what helped get me through a long night of no sleep in a very uncomfortable hospital chair, so to see it come out early this week was definitely noticeable since I came to expect it in the early hours of the morning since that night. Appreciate the reading material!
I’m happy I was able to help you out and I’m sorry to hear that your wife was sick. I have spent far more than my fair share of time in hospitals either waiting or as a patient, and I know how miserable it can be.
We've gone so far around the world that we've met on the other side as it relates to the Chiefs.
I'm in total agreement with the title. It's not quite 2022 Vikings level, but clearly the football Gods owe the Chiefs something. I don't know what they could possibly owe at this point, but the Chiefs did a lot of losing. Maybe there somehow still is some debt left over, because this is one of the luckiest teams in the history of the NFL. Winning eight one possession games in a season is a tough ask. KC has done that already.
I don't know how they continue to do it, and the loss to Buffalo does not change it. There's a reason the Bills were favoured. The Chiefs are not on that level right now, which is why I've said a few times that these Chiefs would be an EXTREMELY fun underdog team to root for, if only they weren't named the Kansas City Chiefs. It's possible a blowup of epic proportions is coming, sort of like it did at the end of last regular season. It's also possible this is just going to be one of the luckiest teams of my lifetime. I'm in the unique position of both those things sounding like fun outcomes.
The Roman philosopher Seneca purportedly said: “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
Sometimes things go the Chiefs way, sometimes they don’t. I never said their streak was the result of luck (which, BTW, I proved doesn’t actually exist in an early Chiefs Chronicles) and I don’t believe that. I said it was a statistically improbable streak. Have they won any games during their streak because some weird thing went their way? Yep. Randomness happens. That isn’t the main reason for the streak.
The Chiefs are a seasoned, battle-tested team (who has played literal extra seasons worth of high-pressure playoff games) with a HOF coach and QB (who is definitely somewhat off this year- I’ll give you that). When a team like that encounters what some would call “lucky” circumstances, they usually take advantage of them.
They aren’t three-time Super Bowl champs because they’re lucky. If you actually watched every game they play you’d see plenty of things that don’t go their way. But, when something does go their way, be it a call or a bounce or whatever, 9 times out of 10 they’re able to capitalize on it. That’s Championship DNA.
On Christmas last year, the Raiders beat the Chiefs and made them look BAD. Outclassed by the Raiders is an awful look for any team but especially for a defending Super Bowl champion. Chiefs Kingdom was freaking out.
What did the Chiefs do? They regrouped, refocused, and then didn’t lose another game until last Sunday- almost a full calendar year. I have total confidence that the Chiefs will figure out what’s wrong and make the necessary adjustments.
So they lost to Josh Allen and a good Buffalo team in a regular season game. So what? They do that literally every year. Then, in the playoffs, they rip out the Bills still-beating heart and grind it into the turf of whatever stadium they happen to be playing in.
At this point, after all of their success, they’ve more than earned my confidence and support. That’s my stance until further notice.
Thanks for reading!
Now to write a bunch of nonsense to fill up space because the Substack app keeps cutting the end of comments off so you can’t see them. I did a big report but they apparently ignored it.
I see you Gary. It's not as if I don't understand your point. I'm just not sure it passes muster. To a degree, you can make your own luck in the NFL. Just not this much of it.
Throughout NFL history, there is little evidence that this amount of one possession game luck correlates with team quality. Over the new millennium, the five luckiest teams have been the 2022 Vikings, 2012 Colts, 2016 Raiders, 2018 Dolphins, and the 2021 Raiders. Let's ignore the 2018 Dolphins, because even with all the luck in the world they were only able to win seven games, such was the quality of that team. All of the other four were good in clutch situations. They won their one possession games.
None of that means they had championship DNA. In fact, they all (except the Vikings, but even they took a loss that looks worse and worse by the day to the 2022 Giants) got sandblasted in their playoff games that they did not deserve to be in in the first place. None of these were great teams. None of them had great QBs. Their luck was just that. Luck, and it showed later on. Also in the top ten of this list are the 2004 Atlanta Falcons, and the 2020 KC Chiefs, both of whom also eventually met their maker in convincing fashion upon running into much better competition. If the season were to end today, the 2024 KC Chiefs would also be right up there with the best performing teams in one possession games of all time. That's not a compliment. Look at the teams they'd join. It's not a great list.
What I'm saying is that at the very top end, regular season one possession game luck does not seem to correlate with the championships. In the playoffs it does, but that's the whole point of the small sample. The NFL wants randomness to play a great degree into crowning the champion, like the punt that landed on the shoulder in the Super Bowl last year. In hindsight, whoever recovered that was going to win the game. As history played out, it was the Chiefs. I'm not sure if this is how I would crown my champion, but it's their league, so we have to go along.
I say all of this because my understanding or your argument, in a (admittedly reductive) sentence, is that *this time* the extreme one possession game luck is due to team talent. I'm not sure I can buy that Gary. I'm just not. It's not as if I'm down on the Chiefs. In my bi-weekly ranking exercises, I keep putting them as the 3.5th best team in the AFC, definitively behind Buffalo and Baltimore, but touch and go with San Diego and Pittsburgh, likely ahead of both but not by much. That's not an insult. I like the Chiefs still.
We're in agreement that the Buffalo loss didn't really mean anything. It didn't really prove anything. Like I said, there's a reason the Bills were favoured. The outcome was very predictable, but more important than that is that it didn't change anything.
The Chiefs were on pace to be one of the luckiest teams in NFL history before. They still are, and the way they're doing it is mostly without precedent in the history of the league. Where teams like the Vikings and Raiders mentioned above were 6-8 win teams that rode one possession game luck to 11-13 win seasons. This Chiefs team is a 10-11 win team looking like they're riding one possession game luck to a 14-15 win season. I think it's this difference that you're pinpointing, but the question is whether it makes any difference to the overall hypothesis, which is that teams who rely on this level of one possession game luck tend not to get into the position to use that skill in the playoffs at all, almost always losing by 10+.
I can only answer with a very unsatisfying I don't know, because there's no doubt that these Chiefs are better than the 2016 Raiders. Of course they are. Perhaps that will help them stay closer long enough to make things into one possession games, and let their combination of luck/skill win out in the end. I suppose we'll see.
The difference between the Chiefs and those other teams you listed is that the Chiefs have won the majority of their playoff games. They have been to 4 of 5 Super Bowls and won 3 of those 5. If that ain’t Championship DNA, I guess I don’t know what it is. And if you think all of that experience doesn’t help a team in high pressure situations (such as very close or one score games), I’ll have to respectfully disagree yet again.
The 2020 team that didn’t win their Super Bowl had crippling offensive line losses (you can look it up) late in season that the Bucs exploited- Patrick Mahomes scrambled for a record amount of yards trying not to get sacked, if I recall correctly. That same 2020 Chiefs team beat Josh Allen and the Bills in the divisional round by two TDs, BTW.
I think the thing you’re discounting is that this coach/QB/team/organization combine to make something that’s just different. Patrick Mahomes has a 98-26 record overall in his career and is 15-3 in the playoffs. That isn’t luck.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the exception that proves the rule. Stats and advanced metrics are great but they don’t tell the whole story of this particular team.
And since your comment got cut off, that shows me the substack app is still broken and cutting off replies. So I’m going to type some more nonsense.
Great article this week but nothing about how Patrick had to be helped off the field because he blew out his ACL a couple weeks ago and Taylor healed him on the sideline. What are you trying to hide? Just saying, Chiefs best put a ring on that finger if they win it all this year.
We’re trying to keep that quiet, Joe! Ixnay on the Aylortay Iftsway ealinghay!
Not sure how to feel when the article comes out before 2AM 😂
What can I say? I started early this week. Thanks for noticing!
Your week 4 article came through around 4AM my time while I was in a hospital room with my wife who thankfully just got a really bad stomach bug or food poisoning, and it’s what helped get me through a long night of no sleep in a very uncomfortable hospital chair, so to see it come out early this week was definitely noticeable since I came to expect it in the early hours of the morning since that night. Appreciate the reading material!
I’m happy I was able to help you out and I’m sorry to hear that your wife was sick. I have spent far more than my fair share of time in hospitals either waiting or as a patient, and I know how miserable it can be.
We've gone so far around the world that we've met on the other side as it relates to the Chiefs.
I'm in total agreement with the title. It's not quite 2022 Vikings level, but clearly the football Gods owe the Chiefs something. I don't know what they could possibly owe at this point, but the Chiefs did a lot of losing. Maybe there somehow still is some debt left over, because this is one of the luckiest teams in the history of the NFL. Winning eight one possession games in a season is a tough ask. KC has done that already.
I don't know how they continue to do it, and the loss to Buffalo does not change it. There's a reason the Bills were favoured. The Chiefs are not on that level right now, which is why I've said a few times that these Chiefs would be an EXTREMELY fun underdog team to root for, if only they weren't named the Kansas City Chiefs. It's possible a blowup of epic proportions is coming, sort of like it did at the end of last regular season. It's also possible this is just going to be one of the luckiest teams of my lifetime. I'm in the unique position of both those things sounding like fun outcomes.
The Roman philosopher Seneca purportedly said: “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
Sometimes things go the Chiefs way, sometimes they don’t. I never said their streak was the result of luck (which, BTW, I proved doesn’t actually exist in an early Chiefs Chronicles) and I don’t believe that. I said it was a statistically improbable streak. Have they won any games during their streak because some weird thing went their way? Yep. Randomness happens. That isn’t the main reason for the streak.
The Chiefs are a seasoned, battle-tested team (who has played literal extra seasons worth of high-pressure playoff games) with a HOF coach and QB (who is definitely somewhat off this year- I’ll give you that). When a team like that encounters what some would call “lucky” circumstances, they usually take advantage of them.
They aren’t three-time Super Bowl champs because they’re lucky. If you actually watched every game they play you’d see plenty of things that don’t go their way. But, when something does go their way, be it a call or a bounce or whatever, 9 times out of 10 they’re able to capitalize on it. That’s Championship DNA.
On Christmas last year, the Raiders beat the Chiefs and made them look BAD. Outclassed by the Raiders is an awful look for any team but especially for a defending Super Bowl champion. Chiefs Kingdom was freaking out.
What did the Chiefs do? They regrouped, refocused, and then didn’t lose another game until last Sunday- almost a full calendar year. I have total confidence that the Chiefs will figure out what’s wrong and make the necessary adjustments.
So they lost to Josh Allen and a good Buffalo team in a regular season game. So what? They do that literally every year. Then, in the playoffs, they rip out the Bills still-beating heart and grind it into the turf of whatever stadium they happen to be playing in.
At this point, after all of their success, they’ve more than earned my confidence and support. That’s my stance until further notice.
Thanks for reading!
Now to write a bunch of nonsense to fill up space because the Substack app keeps cutting the end of comments off so you can’t see them. I did a big report but they apparently ignored it.
Blah.
Blah.
Blah.
Blah!
I see you Gary. It's not as if I don't understand your point. I'm just not sure it passes muster. To a degree, you can make your own luck in the NFL. Just not this much of it.
Throughout NFL history, there is little evidence that this amount of one possession game luck correlates with team quality. Over the new millennium, the five luckiest teams have been the 2022 Vikings, 2012 Colts, 2016 Raiders, 2018 Dolphins, and the 2021 Raiders. Let's ignore the 2018 Dolphins, because even with all the luck in the world they were only able to win seven games, such was the quality of that team. All of the other four were good in clutch situations. They won their one possession games.
None of that means they had championship DNA. In fact, they all (except the Vikings, but even they took a loss that looks worse and worse by the day to the 2022 Giants) got sandblasted in their playoff games that they did not deserve to be in in the first place. None of these were great teams. None of them had great QBs. Their luck was just that. Luck, and it showed later on. Also in the top ten of this list are the 2004 Atlanta Falcons, and the 2020 KC Chiefs, both of whom also eventually met their maker in convincing fashion upon running into much better competition. If the season were to end today, the 2024 KC Chiefs would also be right up there with the best performing teams in one possession games of all time. That's not a compliment. Look at the teams they'd join. It's not a great list.
What I'm saying is that at the very top end, regular season one possession game luck does not seem to correlate with the championships. In the playoffs it does, but that's the whole point of the small sample. The NFL wants randomness to play a great degree into crowning the champion, like the punt that landed on the shoulder in the Super Bowl last year. In hindsight, whoever recovered that was going to win the game. As history played out, it was the Chiefs. I'm not sure if this is how I would crown my champion, but it's their league, so we have to go along.
I say all of this because my understanding or your argument, in a (admittedly reductive) sentence, is that *this time* the extreme one possession game luck is due to team talent. I'm not sure I can buy that Gary. I'm just not. It's not as if I'm down on the Chiefs. In my bi-weekly ranking exercises, I keep putting them as the 3.5th best team in the AFC, definitively behind Buffalo and Baltimore, but touch and go with San Diego and Pittsburgh, likely ahead of both but not by much. That's not an insult. I like the Chiefs still.
We're in agreement that the Buffalo loss didn't really mean anything. It didn't really prove anything. Like I said, there's a reason the Bills were favoured. The outcome was very predictable, but more important than that is that it didn't change anything.
The Chiefs were on pace to be one of the luckiest teams in NFL history before. They still are, and the way they're doing it is mostly without precedent in the history of the league. Where teams like the Vikings and Raiders mentioned above were 6-8 win teams that rode one possession game luck to 11-13 win seasons. This Chiefs team is a 10-11 win team looking like they're riding one possession game luck to a 14-15 win season. I think it's this difference that you're pinpointing, but the question is whether it makes any difference to the overall hypothesis, which is that teams who rely on this level of one possession game luck tend not to get into the position to use that skill in the playoffs at all, almost always losing by 10+.
I can only answer with a very unsatisfying I don't know, because there's no doubt that these Chiefs are better than the 2016 Raiders. Of course they are. Perhaps that will help them stay closer long enough to make things into one possession games, and let their combination of luck/skill win out in the end. I suppose we'll see.
Agree to disagree.
The difference between the Chiefs and those other teams you listed is that the Chiefs have won the majority of their playoff games. They have been to 4 of 5 Super Bowls and won 3 of those 5. If that ain’t Championship DNA, I guess I don’t know what it is. And if you think all of that experience doesn’t help a team in high pressure situations (such as very close or one score games), I’ll have to respectfully disagree yet again.
The 2020 team that didn’t win their Super Bowl had crippling offensive line losses (you can look it up) late in season that the Bucs exploited- Patrick Mahomes scrambled for a record amount of yards trying not to get sacked, if I recall correctly. That same 2020 Chiefs team beat Josh Allen and the Bills in the divisional round by two TDs, BTW.
I think the thing you’re discounting is that this coach/QB/team/organization combine to make something that’s just different. Patrick Mahomes has a 98-26 record overall in his career and is 15-3 in the playoffs. That isn’t luck.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the exception that proves the rule. Stats and advanced metrics are great but they don’t tell the whole story of this particular team.
And since your comment got cut off, that shows me the substack app is still broken and cutting off replies. So I’m going to type some more nonsense.
Blah.
Blah.
Blah.
Blah!